Allen regains big lead in Zogby poll

Following six weeks of verbal missteps and faux pas, Senator George Allen may have finally righted his ship, according to the latest Reuters/Zogby survey. That poll of likely voters shows Allen leading Democratic opponent Jim Webb by 11 percentage points with 48 percent supporting Allen, 37 percent for Webb, 13 percent undecided, and a 4 percent margin of error.

In an earlier Zogby poll taken days after the infamous "Macaca" incident made national headlines in August, Allen's once sizable lead over Webb had diminished to a single percentage point.

While the most recent poll, a telephone survey from September 25-October 2, might appear to represent a significant change in the campaign. However, Matthew Smyth of the UVA Center for Politics warns voters not to read too much into the numbers.

"Until we see another survey that shows similar results, it’s tough to tell whether this is a developing trend or simply a deviant result," says Smyth, adding, "The majority of recent polls show a tied race or a slim lead for Senator Allen, and that seems to be where the race currently lies."

Allen and Webb have been scattershooting across the Commonwealth as of late, with both making recent stops in Charlottesville. Allen greeted supporters at Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport on Wednesday, while Webb held a fundraiser with Governor Tim Kaine and best-selling authors John Grisham and Stephen King at the Paramount Theater on Sunday, September 24.

The candidates' last best chance to make their case to voters comes Monday, October 9 when the two debate on statewide television at 8pm.

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4 comments

He'll win. I don't see why anyone thinks he won't. He is So Very Virginia.

Am I making you corny?

The media air war hasn't even started. Allen's got alot more money and that will make a difference. Personally I think that the entire jewish grandfather might actually have helped. Some people are still unsure why this was news. It look like a cheap trick and Allen mother says she never told him and no one ever counter that it was untrue. Case closed.

And with all the oxygen being burned up by the Foley fiasco, Allen simply needs to mistake free ball till the election

Yeah, we're stuck with George just like we're stuck with Virgil. We need Dems willing to play freaking dirty as hell, just like George will. We need sarcasm and truly great, hard-hitting TV ads and LOTS of them. George is a cheap shot artist when things get tough - nasty as anybody out there, and lies just as "well" as our fearless decider.

At least some good came out of the Macaca thing: his presidential aspirations are history.

Looks like the Zogby poll is on the edge of reality. This from DailyKos:

VIRGINIA (Senate)
Gallup. 9/27-10/1. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Allen (R) 48
Webb (D) 45

In this case, registered voters give Allen a wider 43-37 lead. So the more politically engaged the electorate, the better Webb does. A poll conducted a week before this one by M-D pegged the race as tied at 43-43. Then there was that wacky Zogby poll for Reuters that gave Allen a 48-37 lead. If those polls are the two extremes, this one sits nicely in the middle. It feels right.