Post: Senate race tied, slight lead for amendment
With only 21 days until Virginians go to the polls, the Washington Post says that, according to its poll data, the race between Senator George Allen (R) and his Democratic opponent, Jim Webb, is a statistical tie. Among likely voters, 49 percent support Allen and 47 percent give the nod to Webb with a 3 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted between October 10, the day after the candidates' televised debate, and October 12. This data would appear to contradict an earlier Zogby poll showing Allen with a comfortable 11-point lead.
In that same Washington Post poll, only 53 percent of likely voters say they're voting for the Constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, with 43 percent voting against the amendment and 4 percent saying they have no opinion, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent. Were these numbers to hold until Election Day, the amendment would pass as it needs only a simple majority, but the margin is far smaller than experts had predicted.
The good news for those who oppose the amendment is that when the Post read a one-sentence summary of the leading arguments for and against it to those polled, only 48 percent said they'd vote for the amendment, with 47 percent saying they'd vote against it– a statistical dead heat. If Old Dominion voters reject the amendment, they would make Virginia the first state in the union to vote down a same-sex marriage ban.