New CNN poll shows 13-point swing for Obama

A new poll from CNN and Time magazine shows Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) with a nine point lead over Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in the race for Virginia's 13 electoral votes in the presidential election. Fifty-three percent of likely voters said they supported Obama, and 44 percent said they were voting for McCain, with a 3.5 percent margin of error. That's a 13 point swing from the last CNN-Time poll earlier this month, which showed McCain with a four-point lead over Obama. Still, not all the pollsters agree. The American Research Group still gives McCain the edge over Obama, 49 percent to 46 percent with a 4 percent margin of error.


I think it is even higher than that. Young people don't have home phones. They have cell phones. A recent poll of new voters (young people) shows they favor Obama by 65%. These numbers aren't even in the poll numbers above. I think people are going to be in for a big surprise on election day. Obama in a blow out.

polls don't mean much in this election because they are going on the assumption that on election day all the new voters and the younger voters will turn out , which is questionable.

I agree I think Obama wins big here in Virginia. Most polling I have seen has Obama up anywhere from 3-9 points. This state is basically split into 4 areas. Obama should do extremely well in N.VA and very well in Central VA (Richmond, Henrico, Tri-Cities). McCain should do well in the rural southwest portion of the state. I see that area voting more like Tennessee and Kentucky. The Tidewater area is where the Republicans traditionally win big because of the military in the area. However, Obama should offset many of those gains with the expected high turnout of African Americans that live in the 7 cities out there (Suffolk, Newport News, Hampton, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach). If Obama can get a very high turnout in this area, it wont be close. Virginia will be called well before 10pm when a lot of the Midwestern state polls close.